Diammonium phosphate China export supply has all but disappeared in 2026. Global Agriculture, citing Argus Media data first reported by The Western Producer, says China's phosphate fertilizer exports have fallen to almost nothing this year from about 5.3 million tonnes in 2025, and Argus expects only about 2 million tonnes in 2027. The cause matters as much as the number: Chinese output is limited by tight sulfur supply as well as by export policy, so a policy change alone would not bring the tonnes back. Southeast Asian buyers of diammonium phosphate (DAP) and monoammonium phosphate (MAP) should plan on China as a marginal origin through 2027, not as the swing supplier it used to be.
Diammonium Phosphate China Export Supply: What the Numbers Show
The 5.3 million tonne figure covers phosphate fertilizers as a group, not DAP alone. Customs data narrows the picture for DAP specifically, and shows MAP moving differently early in the year.
| Period | What was reported | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Jan–Sep 2025 | DAP 2.514 million t (down 23.6% y/y); MAP 1.249 million t (down 20.5% y/y) | SunSirs |
| Full year 2025 | Phosphate fertilizer exports about 5.3 million t | Argus, via The Western Producer |
| 11 Dec 2025 | NDRC meeting with producers: exports suspended in principle until August 2026 | SunSirs |
| Jan–Apr 2026 | DAP 20,000 t (down 76.3% y/y), none in April; MAP 110,000 t (up 48.1% y/y) | China customs, via Global Agriculture |
| Early Sep 2026 | Producers still without official guidance on resumption; sources said DAP and MAP curbs could run to year-end | S&P Global |
| 2027 forecast | About 2 million t, a partial recovery | Argus |
Why Sulfur Changes the Outlook
China's fertilizer export curbs have a long history, and past rounds tended to follow the domestic planting calendar. This cycle has a second constraint. Phosphoric acid, the intermediate behind DAP and MAP, is made with sulfuric acid. Sulfur was already tight in late 2025, and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz since late February has made it scarcer, because the Gulf supplies a large share of the sulfur used in phosphate production. Lynn Wang of Argus told The Western Producer that Chinese production is “focused solely on meeting domestic demand” because of that tightness, and Beijing has curbed sulfuric acid shipments alongside phosphates.
The distinction is between capacity and output. Chinese plants have not gone anywhere, but a plant short of sulfur cannot run at full rate, and domestic buyers come first for what it does produce. That is why Argus ties further recovery to more secure sulfur supply, with no firm date attached, while Chinese urea exports hold at a forecast 6 to 7 million tonnes for 2026. Urea does not depend on sulfur, and the contrast is a useful reminder not to read one fertilizer's export story across to another.
Alternative Origins Are Under Pressure Too
Global Agriculture points to Morocco, Saudi Arabia and the United States as the origins buyers will lean on. All three are realistic, but buyers should not assume the substitution is simple, because those sellers are working in the same sulfur and freight market.
- Saudi Arabia: Argus reported in August that Ma'aden cut its 2026 phosphate production guidance to the equivalent of 6 to 6.5 million tonnes of DAP, citing a lack of sulfur and high logistics costs. With Gulf exports from Ras Al-Khair disrupted, product has been trucked overland to Red Sea ports and, more recently, to Duqm in Oman, where port congestion was reported.
- Brazil, as competing demand: sulfur shortages have forced cuts at Brazilian plants making MAP, SSP and TSP, which leaves that market leaning harder on imports.
- Russia: Argus expects the world's largest fertilizer exporter to ship 3% less in 2026, at 42.9 million tonnes across all products, its first decline since 2022. Russia also applies export quotas.
- Freight: Argus's Marina Simonova told The Western Producer that freight rates are more than double pre-war levels, and war-risk premiums still apply in the region.
Demand is not fixed either. Argus's index shows phosphate at its least affordable in years, and some US farmers are drawing down soil reserves rather than applying at normal rates. That may ease some of the pull on global tonnes, but it is a slow and uneven offset rather than something to plan a purchase around.
Which Southeast Asian Buyers Are Most Exposed
The regional starting point is high. International Trade Centre data cited by Fertilizer Daily shows China supplied about a fifth of fertilizer imports into Thailand and Indonesia last year and about a third into Malaysia, across all fertilizer types. Exposure then differs by segment, and the reporting does not cover every one of them equally.
| Material | Typical use | Who should watch it | Status of the evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diammonium Phosphate (DAP, 18-46-0) | NPK blending, direct application | Fertilizer blenders, agri-input distributors | Directly reported |
| Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP, 11-52-0) | NPK blending, soluble fertilizer | Blenders, fertigation suppliers | Directly reported |
| Dicalcium Phosphate (DCP) | Feed phosphorus source, tablet excipient | Feed mills, pharma and supplement manufacturers | Our inference: shared acid chain |
| Monocalcium Phosphate (MCP) | Feed phosphorus source, leavening acid | Feed mills, bakery ingredient users | Our inference: shared acid chain |
| Tricalcium Phosphate (TCP) | Anti-caking agent, feed phosphorus source | Food and seasoning manufacturers, feed mills | Our inference: shared acid chain |
That last column is deliberate. The Argus reporting is about fertilizer, and we have not seen it state that feed or food phosphates are subject to the same export treatment. The concern for those grades is indirect: they draw on phosphoric acid, so a sulfur-constrained acid chain can reach them even without a direct curb. Treat it as a question to put to your supplier, not as a reported shortage.
Blenders carry the most immediate work. Moving between DAP and MAP changes the nitrogen-to-phosphorus ratio, so a formula built on one needs rebalancing on the other, and a new origin needs checking for granulation and impurities. Food and pharma users have less tonnage at stake but a slower route out, because a change of origin can trigger requalification and new documentation under their own change-control procedures.
Scenarios to Plan Against Through 2027
Base case, in line with Argus: China returns at about 2 million tonnes in 2027. That is real volume, but well under half of 2025, and it will be contested by every import market that has gone short. Contracts written on the assumption of 2025-style availability need revisiting now.
Upside: sulfur supply steadies and Beijing eases its restrictions, so exports recover further and faster. Volumes could return at short notice, because the curbs are administered rather than legislated. Buyers with qualified origins and flexible contract terms would be able to use that supply; it would not justify delaying qualification work today.
Downside: Gulf disruption persists, sulfur stays tight and 2027 exports undershoot the forecast. Alternative origins remain constrained at the same time, so lead-time risk becomes the main planning variable.
Procurement Checklist
- Read China customs and official export notices directly. Secondary summaries of 2026 year-to-date figures have carried conflicting DAP and MAP numbers, so confirm before quoting any of them internally.
- Add sulfur availability to your phosphate watchlist. It now tells you more about Chinese export capacity than the planting calendar does.
- Calculate days of cover for each phosphate grade against the lead time of your realistic second origin, not your current one.
- Ask suppliers of DCP, MCP and TCP where their phosphoric acid comes from and whether their allocation has changed this year.
- Qualify a second origin for your highest-exposure grade now, including P2O5, impurity and documentation checks, since requalification takes longer than a shipment delay.
- Review contract language on origin substitution, so that a switch does not require renegotiating the entire agreement.
FAQ
Has China stopped exporting diammonium phosphate?
Very nearly. China customs recorded just 20,000 tonnes of DAP in January to April 2026 and none in April, and Argus describes phosphate fertilizer exports overall as almost nothing this year. As of early September, S&P Global reported that producers had no official guidance on when shipments might resume.
When will China resume DAP exports?
No date has been announced in the reporting we reviewed. Argus expects a partial return to about 2 million tonnes of phosphate exports in 2027, with any further recovery depending on sulfur supply. Treat that as a forecast rather than a schedule.
Where can we buy DAP if not from China?
Morocco, Saudi Arabia and the United States are the main origins named in the reporting, and Russia remains a major fertilizer exporter under its own quotas. Each comes with different freight, lead-time and specification considerations, so check them against your formula before you switch.
Does the DAP shortage affect feed-grade and food-grade phosphates?
The reporting does not say so directly. DCP, MCP and TCP share an upstream dependence on phosphoric acid, so there is an indirect risk worth checking with your supplier, but we have not seen a report of the fertilizer curbs being applied to these grades.
How DIC supports this
Diamond Interchem distributes diammonium phosphate alongside monoammonium phosphate and the calcium phosphates DCP, MCP and TCP, so we can review a phosphate plan across grades rather than one material at a time. Our VMI programs help manufacturers hold a planned buffer against longer lead times, and our isolated pharma-grade warehouse keeps pharma- and food-grade material segregated from industrial handling. Availability by grade and origin is moving in this market, so we would rather discuss your actual formula and volumes than generalize. If your procurement team wants to review its phosphate plan for 2027, reach out through our contact form.
